A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
