Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory

Just 60 days prior when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.